6/7/2023 0 Comments Bell horse drops toothpicksIn the first example, you have a 1-in-52 chance of drawing the Ace of Spades on your first draw but you have a 1-in-51 chance (if the card is still there) on the second draw. As an example, its the difference between drawing cards from a deck one at a time (without putting them back), and rolling a 6-sided die. Gibblefinwick: The mistake he refers to is the difference between odds that are affected by previous attempts, and those that are unaffected by previous attempts. If you looted 50 Treat Bags, you have a ~99.5% chance of having received toothpicks if you didn't, you can consider yourself a extremely unlucky! There is a 0.5% chance NOT getting toothpicks the chance is slim but it is there in fact you actually have a better chance of getting the rare mount.If you looted 30 Treat Bags, you have a ~95% chance of having received toothpicks if you didn't, you can consider yourself very unlucky.If you looted 10 Treat Bags, you have a ~65% chance of having received toothpicks if you didn't, you can consider yourself a little unlucky.(If you were to have followed saber's logic, only 10 of the 100 people would have received toothpicks.) Just to clarify, it is this split (65/35) which explains "why some get it often, and some never". This means that if you take a random sampling of 100 people who each looted 10 Treat Bags, approximately 65 of them will have received toothpicks. Getting back to the looting of toothpicks: Given a 10% drop rate, there is a cumulative 65% chance that the item will drop over 10 attempts ( The calculation (from another author) that showed this was correct, but unfortunately that post has been purged.). (The important thing to note here is that you could roll that die as many times as you like, there will never be a point where a 6 is guaranteed.)īased on the above information, saber seems to think that you would be unable to determine a cumulative effect of the chances of rolling a 6 in 10 rolls. the odds are exactly the same on each individual roll.
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